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Old 12-18-06, 08:57 AM
moises20 moises20 is offline
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Default Help me figure this stat out please.

Can someone help me figure out that lets say I have a pocket pair (3, 3) and I make a large bet and everyone folds except for one person who calls? Assuming that he does not have a pocket pair, what are the odds that he will pair one of his cards on the flop? Thank you for any help.
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Old 12-18-06, 10:23 AM
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iceberg iceberg is offline
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I use a common method. Let's say that they have AK so there are 6 cards (called Outs) still in the deck of 47 (after the flop). Since there are 3 cards in the flop, they have 3x6=18 chances to hit an Out. That means 47 / (3x6 Outs) ~ 2.5 (ie. once every 2.5 hands).

If they miss on the Flop, then the odds of getting a pair on the Turn is 46 / 6 ~ 8 (ie. 1 in 8). Similarly for the River.

Your chances of hitting trips is roughly 47 / (3x2 Outs) ~ 8 (ie. about one in Eight). If you miss your trips, then 46 / 2 ~ 23 (ie. about 1 chance in 23) on the Turn. Usually if I play small pairs and miss hitting trips, then I will fold if there is a bet.
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