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how i lost a huge pot in yesterday's league
last league event i get out really early.. here is the hand when i lost huge pot, and i want to know what's your opinion if i played it right or wrong?
it was really early stage with low blinds.. i was dealt 55 (which is one of my favourite hands) on a 5-6 players table.
drago raised a preflop for 125 chips, thinkerbell and me called the raise..
flop was K54 all different suits.. drago betted 1/3 of a pot, thinkerbell called after big pause, i was thinking for a while what to do and decided to slow play my set only called there - trying to make a bigger pot (i was hoping somebody is holding AK or KQ or a high drawing hands). Turn was 9 (4th different suit), thinkerbell made a bet of a pot size, i reraised (or moved allin), and i was called (drago folded). Showdown: thinkerbell was holding 99 winning that pot with trips nines..
when i analyze that hand again, my opinion is that i made a bad move not raising that pot on flop. but that wasn't scary flop and turn for me at all (no flush, str8 draws (besides that low str8 draw on flop, but i was pretty sure nobody is holding 67).. but, when i looked that CD tutorial (where i learnt about hold'em play) i remember the advice of T.J Cloutier in the quiz section with similar situation (maybe you're outhdrawn with bigger set, but there is no chance you will fold set on board like that)..
what is your opinion ?
"There's no skill in poker. Poker is a joke. Tournament poker is a joke. Whoever gets most lucky is the next superstar." - Mike Mattusow
I agree that there was nothing to fear on the flop when you already had a set. However, With her making a big move immediately after an overcard on the turn, I would have to consider that she had a set as well.
It would have been a hard laydown, but it would have been a smart laydown. Honestly, I can't say I would have done any different than you did, Dovla. You knew you had a good hand and you knew there was no chance of a flush on the board, which makes a set look even better.
Just my $.02/$.04
meh, u made the right move to slow play it,
it's a pretty good board for you, there's no flush draw, there's unlikely a hand your opponent has which will give him a straight draw, or a DECENT straight draw that is (67 is the only likely hand, as they won't be playing 23 or 36, and any other straight draw would be a gutshot, so they'll only be drawing to 4 outs)
put your opponent on a range of hands, what are they likely be holding, drago may be holding any pocket pair down to 88s, AK~A9, KQs, etc if he holds Ax, then he is continuation betting, hoping to win the pot as the aggressor. if he has AK, he'll think he is making a value bet with the best hand, any other pocket pair he probably hopes he is ahead as well and bet, especially if he has aces)
(if he has KK, well your gonna get stacked anyways, but it's very unlikely he has KK as i doubt he would have bet his top set on the flop, (too dry a board to bet anyways, unlikely there is any hand that would call him except a PP)
now for Tinkerbell. what's he/she calling with? depending on how lose she is, maybe she's calling the preflop bet and flop bet with A3.. but that's the only Ax hand she's likely to call with both times. another hand she's likely to call both times is with any other pocket pair (probably between 10 10 and 66)
if she had Aces,kings, Queens or Jacks she would have reraised preflop.
if tinkerbell has 44, well ur gonna get all the chips off her anyways with a set over set. She may also have KQ,KJ
that being said, it's very much likely ahead you are ahead on the flop and the only hand that's going to call your reraise (should you reraise) is anyone with a K in their hand, (ie AK,KQ from Dovla, or KQ KJ from Tinkerbell)
there's no likely flush/straight drawing hand on that board.
what does that mean? it means the chances that they would outdraw you on the turn is very very slim, maybe like 5% (2 outs), as anyone with a K can't outdraw you with just one turn card, and any other pocket pair needs one of their other 2 cards to show up to get a set.
calling in your position is right, as you want your opponent to see an extra card, as majority of them are only slightly going to improve their hand (ie the Ace hits on the turn and anyone with Ax will think they are ahead, and your going to stack AK; another K hits the board and you stack someone with trips with your Full house), another card like a Q,J comes and KQ,KJ will be stacked)
alternatively, anyone with a King will bet may bet out on the turn (especially Tinkerbell if she had a K and Dovla checks the turn first),
i'd bet/raise them on the turn, and try to win the pot there,
if any of them has a PP (1010,99,88)), and their set doesn't hit on the turn, and the action goes check,check, and you bet, they may still call your bet thinking you are just trying ti steal the pot).
anyways, don't raise, chances of the turn being bad for you is really low so you want to extract more chips off them by giving them another card
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