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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-29-07, 02:32 AM
plaahh7 plaahh7 is offline
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i dont know is this yet posted but heres something i found few days ago...
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 10-29-07, 05:28 AM
xp8bg xp8bg is offline
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Originally Posted by plaahh7 View Post
i dont know is this yet posted but heres something i found few days ago...
This is photoshop.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 10-29-07, 10:44 AM
schmokey schmokey is offline
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Default Ok, think about this.

I always thought it was ridiculous to think a poker site was fixed. Obviously the whole idea that they would risk everything to fix hands was sort of silly. Also, a lot of big time pros play these sites, so they would likely have to all be in on it, as the big pros would likely spot any regular cheating. Finally, the idea of being able to develop software that could pick and choose which cards to put out next in order to cheat is silly. That type of software would incredibly difficult to write and it would be easy to spot to anyone who got a chance to look at the code.

BUT . . .

Ok, but what about this? How about software that allows the company to know what cards are coming? Not to pick what cards are to come, but to know what cards are coming. So if the flop will be 3AK44, you could know ahead of time that your 34 would beat the AK at the table. This would allow the site to have X number of players sitting in on tourneys and waiting for chances to "bad beat" people.

That type of software fix would be easy to do and harder to spot to an outside observer. Also, it would not tweak anyone looking for alterations to the random number generator.

So how would a site use this? Would they just sit someone at every table and clean up? Of course not. First of all, low limit games and tourneys would produce so little money for them that the risk/reward would be ridiculous. But placing people in the big money tourneys is a different story. And this is where I got to wondering. I've won plenty of money playing low limit on Poker stars, but whenever I would jump into a big money tourney, the most bizarre shit would start to happen. Specifically, you'd see a guy playing for hours as a rock, then all of a sudden, he puts in the majority of his chips with 94 vs. AA, then flops the 9 and the 4.

So what is more improbable here? That a very conservative player would invest $200 and, more importantly, hours and hours of time into playing in a tourney only to shove all his chips in on 94 before the tourney is even into the money? Or that the guy who looked so conservative actually knew what cards were coming?

So why don't I back all this up with stats? Because there never will be any stats to prove this type of cheating. This is extremely selective cheating. So selective, in fact, that there will never be enough hands played this way in order to prove a statistical anomaly. It only takes a very small number of big hands to make it all the way through if you keep winning the key giant hands. And you can easily play enough losing hands that you know will be for small money in order to make it look less obvious.

So there is no way to prove this, and there is really no way to disprove it either. But I can say that in the small sample of big money tourneys that I tracked, I saw this type of play far too often to buy that it was random. While there are plenty of donkeys who throw all their money in with crap, there are just not guys out there who play tight-conservative poker for hours at a time and then all of sudden turn donkey on the one or two hands that allow them to win HUGE on crazy flops with their garbage hands.

So, yeah, I think Poker stars is fixed, but only in a very precise and limited way. If you are playing 50 dollar SNGs, no one is stealing your money. Ditto for low limit cash games. But when you get up into the tourneys where hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake, I think Poker stars is definitely pulling some shit on people.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 10-29-07, 12:59 PM
xp8bg xp8bg is offline
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Default could be

Schmokey your theory is a good one. I haven't played high stakes tournaments, so I can't say I've saw anything like that. But I think that if there is a "robot" in the game, it could be easily tracked by the real people playing in the tournament. Because if anyone sees such tight player who gets allin pre-flop with a crap vs a high pair and wins, then you can ask him something in the chat, and if he doesn't answer or his answer is strange, then you can watch him how he plays until the end of the tournament. And if this happens again, you should contact the support. If they told you, no there is no problem with this guy, he hasn't hacked, then we can say that they cover him, which means that he is a "robot" infact. It's really strange what you say, someone playing thight and then allin with a crap, I doubt he plays multitables and has tilted so much haha.

When I think about your suggestion how the cards might be dealt, another thing comes in my mind. This is on the pokerstars page about RNG etc:
Originally Posted by
A deck of 52 cards can be shuffled in 52! ways. 52! is about 2^225 (to be precise, 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,404,000,000 ,000,000,000 ways). We use 249 random bits from both entropy sources (user input and thermal noise) to achieve an even and unpredictable statistical distribution.
So let's say they select random one of these decks. Then if there is a robot he could exactly know the cards to come until the very last. This was your suggestion. But think about that - what if they track which of these decks is more profitable for them (by more profitable I mean - which generates more rake for them in cash games and which eliminates some players in the tourneys faster)? Then they can select the more profitable decks more often. It will be random again, but these decks will have let's say x4 koefficient and will come more often. And again it would be extreamly hard to prove it's rigged in this way.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 10-29-07, 06:44 PM is offline
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I've been playing at stars and notice a pattern. Every time I win the faucets start running dry. And its not my play that's changed it's the cards. I will be getting great cards after I just make a deposit and than I get rags for hours on end. Lose to bad beat after bad beat.

And I've noticed the weirdest calls. For example today I was playing 10c/25c Pot Limit OMAHA some guy had pocket Aces flop came out 10Q7 giving me trip Queens I bet 4.40 he reraises 20 dollars turn comes 7 giving me a I bet 25 dollars which is all the money I have and he calls with AA...and guess what he hits his Ace on the river. Is that BS or what? But that's not the end of it. I rebuy in and the flop comes AK7 of Spades I have Q 9 of spades I make a pot sized bet of 3 dollars he calls. Turn comes 8 of spades I bet 6 dollars he reraises me 6 more dollars I call. And guess what a 7 hits the river giving him 4 of a kind, he bets 4 dollars I call.

So I'm thinking maybe its bad luck. A few hands later I have AK of clubs board flops 10c9c2c giving me the nut flush. I bet 1 dollar this guy rereaises 3 dollars I call. Turn comes Jh. I make a pot sized bet of 8 dollars he not only calls but reraises me 10 dollars. The river comes 8c. I'm first to act so I bet my remaining chip stack. He calls and of course he has me beat with a straight flush.

This all happened in the span of 30 mins in which I was down over 50 bucks. Tell me Pstars isn't rigged.

I noticed that this guy folds most of his hands. So he isn't a donkey but he always wins when the bets get big. I've seen too many plays where the player whose making big money calls is drawing to 1 or 2 outs in the deck and always seems to hit to believe PSTARS is Legit.

Oh yeah and check out Kidpoker and Fossilman on Sharkscope both are losing players at PSTARS. Yeah PSTARS is so legit even the pros are losing.

Last edited by : 10-29-07 at 06:48 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 10-30-07, 05:11 PM
Eleemosynar Eleemosynar is offline
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Cool Interesting Observation

Playing Texas Holdem NL

I went 358 hands in a row without being dealt a card higher than a 10 and without pairs or suited connectors. Not sure what the percentages of that happening is, but I am certain they are extremely (EXTREMELY) low.

Interestingly, this streak occurred after my making a crack in chat about the fix being in.

On a whim, I jumped into a razz tourney where I had a serious problem with trips and quad - every hand I was assured of a minimum of trips.

Go figure!

I know those people that are blessed with having that +% tag on their account will never accept that Pokerstars is rigged, but us less fortunate ones would gladly prove it to you - just come to my home and I will log on and show you my uncanny ability to predict whats not coming up or what is, depending on the game.

Whats coming up is whatever I fold - what isn't coming up is what I called with.

Sour grapes, yes perhaps. But, reasonable ones!
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 10-30-07, 07:07 PM
xp8bg xp8bg is offline
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Originally Posted by Eleemosynar View Post
I went 358 hands in a row without being dealt a card higher than a 10...
Chance is 0.7^358
It's impossible, really... Whitout a Hand History I doubt anyone could believe this... Even with HH - this chance is 0.0~(55 zeros)~3 - you have mistaken something perhaps, it's really impossible this to happen.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 10-30-07, 09:23 PM
enter_issues enter_issues is offline
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xp8bg - the way you collect hand history statistics would work, though as someone mentioned, it seems the suspicious deck activities occur selectively. That means in the long run, all the stats we collect wouldn't be sufficient enough to call PS rigged. I started collecting past hand histories as well, with columns that also have who has the big stack, who called an all-in situation, etc since I think those have a huge factor on why suspicious hands occur.

I was playing a $1 no limit tournament, and I was placed at a table where everything was smooth and fine. Then I was moved on to another table where the most suspicious things began to happen. There was a player who kept on killing everyone going all-in with mediocre hands. I was dealt QQ and after having raised preflop, he went all-in again. Though I had more chips than him, I said "watch this pokerstars moment" after I called, and he won with a flush with A8 of spades. It's not the worst beat (though unlikely) but hand after hand, he slaughtered other people with garbage all-in calls.

At another $1 SNG, I made an all-in bet with nothing (trying to bluff another player out) but he made a spectacular call. However, I won the hand hitting the turn and river, and I was pretty shocked. For the rest of the game, I played how I would normally play, though there were times where I would hit excellent hands with inferior hole cards. It's like all the luck I have was all shoved into one game.

It just makes me think why PS would do this if they do have control of favoring the deck. I realize that tournaments are a LOT faster with these all-in situations that pop up way more often than usual, but selectively enough to not be recorded as rigged.

It is also a myth that players who are profiting from PS won't say the game is rigged. I happen to have a pretty good positive ROR and am profiting (just a little), but I still notice the suspicious deck that occurs with the same situational pattern to me, but moreso other people.

To those who still play on PS, check sharkscope for statistics on a player that seems to bad beat everyone on a table. So far for me, the ones that continuously reaped other players with garbage actually have a bad record with losses and such. My theory is that they keep on playing because of these sudden "bursts" of luck.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 11-03-07, 07:19 PM
xp8bg xp8bg is offline
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Default 2 Months Pokerstars Odds Calculated

Here is my statistical excel file for the past two months with my hand histories of 160 games of $5 SNG and $5 45ppl MTT ~ 10 000 deals. You'll find all the required information inside, how the odds are being calculated. The password for the .rar file will be given at PM. Please don't comment or publish this excel file anywhere, just see it for yourself. You can do the same thing after that, if you don't believe that these percents are calculated right.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 11-04-07, 06:27 AM
sensei24's Avatar
sensei24 sensei24 is offline
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Default My pokerstars opinion!

I read what you guys said about pokerstars and i agree on most part but i also think that there are many good players which play there and some of them loses some of them win, but if you play tight and not risk all your chips in a hand you can get good results.
I enjoyed playing there for some time but then i begin chasing bonuses on other sites.
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